SIRD Model: COVID-19 In Pakistan

The SIRD model (as per wikipedia)

The Susceptible-Infectious-Recovered-Deceased-Model differentiates between Recovered (meaning specifically individuals having survived the disease and now immune) and Deceased. This model uses the following system of differential equations:

${\displaystyle {\begin{aligned}&{\frac {dS}{dt}}=-{\frac {\beta IS}{N}},\\[6pt]&{\frac {dI}{dt}}={\frac {\beta IS}{N}}-\gamma I-\mu I,\\[6pt]&{\frac {dR}{dt}}=\gamma I,\\[6pt]&{\frac {dD}{dt}}=\mu I,\end{aligned}}}$

where ${\displaystyle \beta ,\gamma ,\mu }$ are the rates of infection, recovery, and mortality, respectively.

SIRD Model for COVID-19 evolution in Pakistan

I have modeled the the evolution of COVID-19 in Pakistan with SIRD model using R software. 

The obtained graph are as follows:

The red line is evolution of infection, the green line is evolution of recovery and the orange line is the evolution of death count.

The same plot in the logarithmic scale to better visualize the fitting of the data is given below.

Now, check out future evolution prediction based on the model:

The exponential increase phase is still continuous and will take around a month time to reach plateau. The recovery phase could then be very long. There is also possibility of increment of death counts. Let's see the same graph in logarithmic scale to better visualize the fitting of the curve. The trend of the evolution and the future prediction using the model is shown in the graph.

Hope you understand, what the graph is trying to say. I hope, I don't have to explain.

RESPECT LOCK-DOWN, STAY AT HOME. 

STAY SAFE AND LET OTHERS BE SAFE AS WELL.

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