Quantitative Risk Assessment Model for Salmonella in Whole Chickens

Abstract

This study successfully replicates the quantitative risk assessment model (QRAM) for Salmonella in whole chickens originally developed by Oscar (2004). Using R programming with the mc2d package, we reconstructed the retail-to-table pathway incorporating five key processing stages: initial contamination at retail, growth during transport, thermal inactivation during cooking, cross-contamination during serving, and dose-response assessment. The model utilized Monte Carlo simulation with 100,001 iterations to quantify variability and uncertainty in risk estimates. Our replication achieved close alignment with original results while enhancing visualization and analytical capabilities.

Food Research Bulletin 2025

A Probabilistic Risk Assessment of Acrylamide Exposure from French Fries: A Case Study on Mitigation Scenarios

Author: Kshitij Shrestha

Abstract

Background: Acrylamide, a processing contaminant formed in starchy foods during high-temperature cooking, is classified as a probable human carcinogen. This study conducts a quantitative risk assessment of acrylamide exposure specifically from French fry consumption.

Methods: A one-dimensional Monte Carlo simulation (n = 100,001) was implemented in R. Acrylamide concentration (µg/kg) was modeled using a Weibull distribution (shape = 1.81, scale = 311.50), and French fry consumption (kg/kg bw/week) was modeled using a Logistic distribution (location = 0.00735, scale = 0.00342). Daily exposure (µg/kg bw/day) was calculated. Risk was characterized using the Margin of Exposure (MOE) approach with a BMDL₁₀ of 0.17 mg/kg bw/day (170 µg/kg bw/day) for tumorigenic effects. Two mitigation scenarios were evaluated: a 10% reduction (Scenario 1) and a 90% reduction (Scenario 2) in acrylamide concentration.

Results: The baseline exposure estimate showed a median of 0.224 µg/kg bw/day. The MOE analysis revealed that 13.01% of the population had an MOE > 10,000 (low concern), while 59.13% had an MOE < 1,000, indicating a potential public health concern. Scenario 1 showed minimal improvement, with 13.28% of the population reaching MOE > 10,000 and 55.83% remaining with MOE < 1,000. Scenario 2 demonstrated substantial risk reduction, with 40.87% of the population achieving MOE > 10,000 and 0.35% having MOE < 1,000.

Conclusion: Current acrylamide exposure from French fries poses a potential health concern for nearly a quarter of the population. While a 10% reduction in acrylamide levels is ineffective, a 90% reduction can protect half of the population from potential risk, highlighting the importance of effective mitigation strategies like citric acid treatment during processing.